Signs of recession?

Article recently written by Nouriel Roubini, Professor of Economics at New York University, and Chief Economist at Atlas Capital Team
- “The mother of all economic crises looms, and there will be little that policymakers can do about it.”
- “The world economy is lurching toward an unprecedented confluence of economic, financial, and debt crises, following the explosion of deficits, borrowing, and leverage in recent decades.”
- “In the private sector, the mountain of debt includes that of households (such as mortgages, credit cards, auto loans, student loans, personal loans), businesses and corporations (bank loans, bond debt, and private debt), and the financial sector (liabilities of bank and nonbank institutions).”
- “In the public sector, it includes central, provincial, and local government bonds and other formal liabilities, as well as implicit debts such as unfunded liabilities from pay-as-you-go pension schemes and health-care systems – all of which will continue to grow as societies age.”
- “Globally, total private- and public-sector debt as a share of GDP rose from 200% in 1999 to 350% in 2021.”
  - “In the United States, it is 420%, which is higher than during the Great Depression and after World War II.”
  - “Unlike in the 2008 financial crisis and the early months of COVID-19, simply bailing out private and public agents with loose macro policies would pour more gasoline on the inflationary fire.”
  - “That means there will be a hard landing – a deep, protracted recession – on top of a severe financial crisis.”

Alignable Network Group survey results show that 40% of U.S. small business owners say they can not pay rent on time or in full for month of November
- 45% of gyms, 44% of retail stores and 44% of restaurants can not pay rent
- 60% cite inflation as reason for problems
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 263,000 net new jobs were added during month of November
ADP argued that its data shows only 127,000 net new jobs were added in November
- ADP claims most new jobs were from hospitality, healthcare and government verticals
Reported that the US labor force participation rate fell to 62.1%
For those aged 25-54, only 82.4% are working
- John Williams, president of Federal Reserve Bank of New York “expects the unemployment rate to rise to around 5% by end of 2023”

Mike Sommers, CEO of American Petroleum Institute is warning that the failure to replenish the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve could trigger “another oil crisis in coming weeks”
- “This is for emergency purposes, not to lower gasoline prices”
- In October alone, President Biden released 180 million barrels
- Now down to 389 million barrels, the lowest since 1984