I am experiencing too many delays with MFPs now.  I believe it is related to the chip problem and especially with A4's

https://www.yahoo.com/now/asia...demic-071604888.html

Worldwide chip shortage expected to last into next year

A global shortage of semiconductors has pushed chip stocks to record highs, and analysts expect that chips will continue to be in short supply at least through the end of the year as COVID-19 pushes the world further into the digital realm and the industry struggles to keep up with demand.Analysts believe there could be more gains ahead, though, as demand sends prices higher and boosts companies throughout the semiconductor space.

The cause seems to be a combination of increased demand as people scooped up electronics during the COVID-19 pandemic, limited manufacturing capacity to meet that demand, and the U.S.-China trade war.

Even as stock fundamentals appear stretched thin, Sur said “we believe semi companies are shipping 10% to 30% BELOW current demand levels and it will take at least 3-4 quarters for supply to catch up with demand and then another 1-2 quarters for inventories at customers/distribution channels to be replenished back to normal levels.”

“We’ve heard from countless component suppliers and distributors about elevated book-to-bill levels and growing backlog, typically a ‘double-ordering’ red
flag,”

... a quick look inside any copier will reveal many microchips and processors that are required to make the product work.  A shortage of one $0.25 chip prevents a critical board from being produced and a copier from being assembled.

this could be a real mess

Factors affecting supply.

1). Chinese fab factories that are on the US entity list.  US manufacturers who used to buy from them are forced to move to other places and this causes supply issues.

2). Chinese customers who are anxious about getting blocked from purchasing US components are building up inventory.

3). COVID concerns are causing rolling outages in supply.

4). Current fab manufacturing capacity running at 100%+.

5). The temporary weather disruption in Texas where Texas Instruments and other companies manufacture semiconductors did not help.

6). The semiconductor supply chain for automobiles is almost empty.

7). Changes in consumer behaviour due to COVID-19.  People were not able to spend money on restaurants, travel or vacations.  They used that money to upgrade their home office and entertainment electronics.

Many A3 copier manufacturers are located in China.  Presumably they can still purchase semiconductor chips manufactured in China.

@SalesServiceGuy what is the US Entity list?

The Entity List is a trade blacklist published by the United States Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security, consisting of certain foreign persons, entities, or governments.

ex President Trump put Chinese chip manufacturers on this list as a result of his self imposed trade wars.

@SalesServiceGuy posted:

The Entity List is a trade blacklist published by the United States Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security, consisting of certain foreign persons, entities, or governments.

ex President Trump put Chinese chip manufacturers on this list as a result of his self imposed trade wars.

Figured Biden would have ended that already

President Biden has been focussed on COVID-19 relief, jobs, rebuilding an economy in disarray and getting his Cabinet nominees in place during his first month in office.  Semiconductor supply is not near to being a top priority.

Having said that President Biden is expected to sign an executive order in the next few weeks that would call for a comprehensive review of the semiconductor supply chain.  The White House is expected to consider incentives to bring manufacturing of semiconductors back to the USA in a process referred to as "on-shoring", bringing manufacturing back to the USA.

Unfortunately, it takes years and billions of US$ to bring a new fab plant online.

China remains an aggressive competitor to the USA that condones the theft of US intellectual property, abuses human rights, uses its military to threaten its neighbours and destroys the environment.  I would not expect a thaw in US China relations anytime soon.

Approx 10-12% of global microchips are manufactured in the USA.

Apple is incredibly reliant on one fab factory from a company called TSMC based in Taiwan that is vulnerable to missile attack from China.

TSMC and Samsung have announced plans to build new fab buildings in the USA but it will take years before finished product can be shipped.

The US high tech defence industry is heavily reliant on a steady stream of microchip processors to build it's products.

President Joe Biden signed an executive order Wednesday meant to address a global chip shortage impacting industries ranging from medical supplies to electric vehicles.

The order includes a 100-day review of key products including semiconductors and advanced batteries used in electric vehicles, followed by a broader, long-term review of six sectors of the economy. The long-term review will allow for policy recommendations to strengthen supply chains, with the goal of quickly implementing the suggestions, Biden said at a press event Wednesday before he signed the order.

The action follows calls from bipartisan members of Congress and industry leaders warning about the potential consequences of the shortage. Commonly known as chips, semiconductors are used to power electronics including phones, electric vehicles and even some medical supplies. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said that “semiconductor manufacturing is a dangerous weak spot in our economy and in our national security.”

Wanted to circle back to this topic since it's been a few months... Is anyone hearing about chip-specific shipping delays within their dealership or from the MFRs? I thought maybe the OEMs would mention it in their financials this quarter, but so far nothing. Thanks!

Very rarely do I hear the real reason for delays.  I would tend to think there is still some issues because of chips.  For A4's devices we are still 4-8 weeks

There was also a major shipping disaster back around Christmas that had a major effect on the technology sector.  It wasn't reported on a whole lot but it certainly is part of this cascade.

I have one of my biggest deals in a few years on hold right now.  110 devices.  Hardware was ordered in March.  Normally I'd have it in less than 5 business days.  Still waiting.  So far my customer is being patient.

From Bloomberg.  Keep in mind that when they say "Container" or "Boxes" they are talking about tractor trailer loads:

"After gale-force winds and large waves buffeted the 364-meter One Apus in November, causing the loss of more than 1,800 containers, footage showed thousands of steel boxes strewn like Lego pieces onboard, some torn to metal shreds. The incident was the worst since 2013, when the MOL Comfort broke in two and sank with its entire cargo of 4,293 containers into the Indian Ocean.

In January, the Maersk Essen lost about 750 boxes while sailing from Xiamen, China, to Los Angeles. A month later, 260 containers fell off the Maersk Eindhoven when it lost power in heavy seas."

The price to rent a shipping container, if you can get one, has increased from $1,500.00 to $5,000.00 per transit from China to the US west coast.

While many manufacturers try to absorb this extra cost, other are forced to pass it along to end users.

Some manufacturers, like Toshiba, have not increased their prices but have reduced their discounts.

There are very many factors that can delay a container arriving at an OEM's warehouse to be unloaded.  Such as driver shortages and rising fuel costs.

Nowadays container arrival dates are "best estimates".

Right now in the copier business, inventory is king and demands a premium cost.  OEMs are more concerned about profitability than moving boxes.

Super interesting @fisher! I had not seen these recent container ship issues. Certainly could be impacting the industry and needs to be part of the conversation from the OEMs. However, it sounds as though MFRs may not know if their products are lost until way later?